The Biden administration must reaffirm that the United States recognizes the immutability of Somaliland’s (and Somalia’s) recognized borders. It is time to put diplomacy first.
While Ethiopia is a continental giant—after Nigeria, it has the largest population in Africa—Somaliland is far smaller in both size and population. Zeyla itself is relatively isolated: The two nearest Somaliland cities—Boroma and Berbera—are 150 and 170 miles, respectively, away over rough terrain. It would take hours, if not days, for Somaliland to muster its forces to repel an Ethiopian invasion. While Ethiopian forces would also face rough and barren terrain, they would only need to drive 160 miles to reach Zeyla.
As important as geopolitical factors are alliances. While Abiy, angered at persistent human rights criticisms, has now turned his back on the United States and Europe in favor of autocratic backers like China, Turkey, Eritrea, and Iran, Somaliland has gone the other direction. The United Kingdom, Denmark, and Kenya all have offices in the Somaliland capital Hargeisa, and the European Union is also a frequent presence. Rather than accept bribes from Beijing as many African countries have, Somaliland chose Taiwan because of shared values. Shortly after, the Chinese foreign ministry sent a delegation in order to trade bribes for a policy change, but Somaliland’s elected leadership sent them packing. China is also upset with Somaliland for commercial reasons: The newly-expanded port of Berbera increasingly competes with Djibouti. The United Arab Emirates’ “corridor” road from the port, which travels past a new UAE-funded airport to the Ethiopian border, makes Berbera more attractive. Abiy may calculate that if he makes a move on Zeyla, he will enjoy China’s backing, if not to punish Taiwan than to prop up China’s own investment in Djibouti.
As he often does, Abiy confuses reality with wishful thinking. Djibouti is no stranger to ethnic tensions between Somalis, who rule the country, and Afars. To move on Somaliland would exacerbate those tensions, as Djiboutian Somalis have kin in Somaliland while many Afars have kin in Ethiopia. Any Ethiopian assault on Zeyla would likely reignite insurgency and destabilize Djibouti.
However, should the Biden administration choose to be proactive, wise diplomacy can avert the crisis. More than eight months after Secretary of State Antony Blinken appointed Jeffrey Feltman to be his special envoy for the Horn of Africa, Feltman has yet to visit Somaliland. He demurs that he has not had time, never mind that the country’s main international airport is just a forty-five-minute flight from Addis Ababa, or a three-hour flight from Doha or Dubai. Perhaps Blinken—whose Africa strategy omitted mention of China—is embarrassed by the fact that Somaliland has greater moral clarity than many in Washington when it comes to the merits of democracy over dictatorship.
Second, diplomatic sensitivity should not trump an opportunity to avert war. The consequences of Blinken and Feltman’s omission of Somaliland from U.S. diplomacy will have real-world effects if Abiy and Chinese leader Xi Jinping interpret the Biden administration’s neglect as a green light to start a new war of aggression.
Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in Iran, Turkey, and the broader Middle East. He also regularly teaches classes at sea about Middle East conflicts, culture, terrorism, and the Horn of Africa to deployed U.S. Navy and Marine units. You can follow him on Twitter: @mrubin1971.